The Demise of Israel: Why and How

People and the media in Israel are expressing the judgment that Israel is on the brink of collapse, facing its demise. But why and how?

Israel is growing weaker while the Palestinians are becoming stronger. Several years ago, Palestinians could not have carried out the October 7th massacre. Now, they are better-organized, better-supplied with armaments, and Palestine has gained international popular support. Israel, on the other hand, is weakening. It is undergoing a massive negative transformation unprecedented in its history. The country is fighting its longest war, which is devastating its economy and having significant social repercussions: Most of its military forces are reservists—men with families and jobs. The prolonged war is breaking families apart, companies are closing their doors as employees are absent, fighting a war with no clear end in sight. As the economy collapses, the cost of living is rising, and the nation’s credit standing is deteriorating.

Hezbollah and Hamas, with Iran’s backing, keep the Israeli population tense, always on alert, unsure when a massive bombardment might descend upon them. People are afraid to leave their homes, fearful of bombings. They feel the need to always stay close to shelters. The rate of street terrorism—in which a single Palestinian takes a knife and goes out looking for a Jew to stab—is increasing. Fear is not only beginning to creep into the Israeli consciousness, but it is starting to make a home there.

People in Israel are losing trust in their government. The Prime Minister is under investigation for corruption. The media reports that the government is taking illegal actions and ignoring the dictates of the legal advisor to the government. Ben Gvir, the Minister of Interior Security (i.e., the police), openly defies the government's agreement with Jordan, which prohibits Jews from praying at the Al-Aqsa Mosque, a site sacred to Muslims. Gvir and thousands of his followers (religious Jews), defy this agreement and pray there because it is where the Jewish temple stood two thousand years ago. This enrages the Palestinians, who consider the site sacred and believe no infidels should step upon its ground.

Another factor that contributes to the loss of trust in the government is that the country's leadership has failed to secure the release of hostages taken by Hamas to Gaza. People are protesting, claiming the government is not protecting them.

The people have also lost trust in the Israeli military. It failed to defend the Jewish settlements on October 7th. The military leadership knew of the imminent attack but ignored it,  not acting for more than seven hours, during which over a thousand civilians—men, women, children, and babies—were butchered in their beds, women were raped, babies were beheaded or put in ovens, and over one hundred civilians were taken hostage.

The country is falling apart. Only a portion of the population contributes to the economy, pays taxes, serves in the army, and fights the war. Orthodox Jews refuse to serve in the military or join the productive economy. They study the sacred scriptures all day and do not work to support themselves or their families. They are mostly being subsidized by the state.

In addition to allocating resources to Orthodox Jews, a significant amount of state funds go to support the expansion of nationalist religious Jewish settlements in the occupied territories. This means there are fewer resources for medical services and education, services whose quality is already in decline.

The solution to the Palestinian problem, suggested by the United States, and supported by a significant part of the Israeli population, is the establishment of two states. However, this will be very difficult to implement because the current government has illegally established Jewish settlements in the territories that should have been part of the Palestinian state. To establish a Palestinian state, the subsequent government must relocate over fifty thousand armed messianic settlers who defy government rules and laws. These settlers will almost certainly use their weapons to resist relocation, and Israel might be facing a civil war.

These developments are causing demoralization and a loss of hope of many Israelis, leading to massive emigration, which is likely to increase. Without a clear, attractive, and believable alternative vision for the future, people, especially young people, are either leaving or considering leaving Israel. Thousands of medical doctors specializing abroad are not returning. The same goes for ex-pat academics and businesspeople based abroad. So far, over 350,000 Israelis have left the country and many are actively developing a Plan B by securing foreign passports so they may, too, leave Israel.

As the country becomes weaker politically (being ostracized by millions of young people worldwide and denounced by many countries and the International Court of Justice) and falls apart both economically and socially, Israel’s increasing weakness will invite further Palestinian attacks like those on October 7th. Also, there could be an incursion of Palestinian forces to take over the country, supported by volunteers from Muslim countries, as happened in Bosnia.

In their attempt to broker some kind of agreement in the region, America is trying to head off this possibility. The U.S. is repeatedly assuring Israel that they will defend them. However, this is not a very reassuring promise because America will never again risk American soldiers by fighting on the ground, risking American lives. The U.S. will fight only from the air which might have a limited impact because a significant part of the war in Israel is on the ground, against terrorists. Moreover, if America's interests change, it might abandon Israel, just as it abandoned the Kurds who fought for America. This might lead to the demise of Israel.

It is part of the Israeli ethos that the Jewish people will never again be exterminated without a fight like they were during the Holocaust. Israel possesses nuclear arms. In a moment of despair, it may use them. A nuclear war and, the region being in flames, is a probable scenario, but not only of Israel’s demise.

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